India Behind The Lens (News Centre)

One of the fiercest electoral battles in modern times is over. Rarely does a state election stretch so much as it did in Bihar. With a month long elections, followed up with months of campaign strategies by different group, we are less than 50 hours from knowing who the winner would be. Exit Polls have given mixed responses. In our exit Poll, we have got a radically different forecast from others. However we decided to publish it anyways after the last decision which proved wrong (As per IBTL exit poll of Delhi, AAP was to win 63 seats and BJP just 7 but the results were not published as it appeared to be an anomaly). Learning from that we have decided to publish the Bihar post poll numbers which has similarly astounding findings

Phase 1 – Tipped to be the toughest phase for the BJP as per Amit Shah. Shah was right. BJP faced rebellion in many seats and seemed out of sorts in this phase. As per our own estimates performance of BJP was quite polarized across districts. In some districts they won maximum seats while in others they struggled to win even 1. As IBTL exit data, this is how the 1st phase would throw up.

Phase 2 – In our post poll analysis, we had indicated that Manjhi has rescued BJP in central Bihar and his presence has brought critical 3% votes share to NDA fold, which results in a net swing of 6%, quite decisive in a close election like this. Manjhi factor helped BJP trounce JDU in its own Social engineering laboratory Gaya. NDA dominated this phase due to Manjhi, IBTL Prediction for Phase 2:

Phase 3 – Lalu's both sons faced an uphill battle in this phase. The Durga Puja gap allowed NDA to come back with refined strategy and more fireworks followed. It would be a miracle if any of the Lalu's 2 sons were to win these elections. Lalu's legacy is all but lost. Whether he would regret more by allying with Nitish Kumat or Nitish will regret more by allying with Lalu is something which time will answer but the alliance was a nonstarter in many places. IBTL verdict for Phase 3 is:

Phase 4 – Wave or storm? Phase 4 proved to be nothing short of Toronado for NDA as the Modi wave proved to be stronger than assessed pre elections. It was in this phase that NDA dealt a decisive blow to the opposition and crossed majority, nothing to leave at chance during phase 5. In Phase 4, following numbers are expected:

Phase 5 – Exceed expectations is what NDA did in this phase. This was supposed to be the weakest area for NDA. NDA surprised all by pulling a stunning performance across the 3 regions of Seemanchal, Kosi and Mithila. If our data is correct, NDA would surprise everyone even in this phase.

Castewise preferences
IBTL does not believe in castewise segregation of Indians; however this polity is still alive in many states. A look at how various castes has voted for different alliances.

Overall Figures

Vote share Forecast
NDA: 44%
MGB: 39.6%
Others: 16.4%

Individual Vote Shares
NDA: BJP 33%, LJP 6%, RLSP 2%, HAM 3%
MGB: JDU 20%, RJD 15%, INC 4.6%
Others: 16.4%

Seats Forecast
NDA: 153
MGB: 83
Others: 7

Individual Seats
NDA: 153 (BJP 120, LJP 18, RLSP 4, HAM 11)
MGB: 83 (JDU 45, RJD 30, INC 8)
Others: 7 (NCP 1, JAM 1, MIM 1, Independents & Others 4)

Disclaimer:
To conclude we have tried to gauge the mood of the people using a fair, random and unbiased sample. IBTL has near 100% record; however historical performances do not guarantee future performances. We expect Bihar elections to go the way we have predicted, however other outcomes cannot be ruled out.