First Blood Drawn in Bihar

First Blood Drawn in Bihar

Opinion Poll 2015: Battle of Bihar

Manjhi, Mahadalits and the Magadh Maze in Bihar

First phase is over and the fate of candidates fighting on these 49 seats has been sealed in the EVM. Strangely in a state which has been known for booth capturing and electoral violence, there are hardly any conspiracy theories going on over the popular ‘EVM fraud’ which gets a new lease of life, every time a poll is going on and usually by the losing side. These allegations in a way give a hint as to who is conceding the ground and who is winning. An election as tough as Bihar naturally sees no such claims as the contest has been even. So who drew the 1st blood in the 1st phase? Election commission guidelines restrict us to provide any data points or trends at this stage which could impact the following stages of the elections. However we attempt to analyze the election and how does this go. It is fair to conclude that with a rise of over 6% in the polling turnout, the Election Commission has definitely drawn first blood and this is a victory of the sorts. We talk about some of the highlights in the following sections

Women Voters – Atleast 5% more women have voted than men and if one considers the sex ratio of the population, this disparity is even higher. So who are these lone women voters? It can be safely assumed that they are the family members of those migrant labours and workers who work outside Bihar. Since they are outside, their wives turn up to vote. Essentially these are working women or housewives belonging to the lower strata of household income. Husband’s views, relatives, awareness are the factors these women are influenced by, for voting. This time safety and security seemed to be a major aspect of the women voters. Dominantly a large % of the women voted for change. However the change was not necessarily at the CM level, it was also observed at a localized MLA level

Caste Polarization – Much is talked about the MYK vs DUE polarization for the UPA and the NDA respectively. Our interaction with the voters made it clear that such polarization exist more at a constituency level than at a party level. So when it was witnessed that the SCs (both Dalits and Mahadalits) have decisively polarized behind the NDA, the Forward Caste polarization as at a constituency level. Many (not majority) of them chose Congress in Bhagalpur, some of them chose JDU candidates in Samastipur and Nawada, however the party with least traction among forward voters was the RJD. By and large the default favorite among the forward voters was the BJP led alliance.

Chemistry Vs Arithmetic – It was said that the UPA would romp home with the sheer arithmetic in its favour.  It was thought that a vote share of 45% for UPA vs NDA vote share of 38%, that too which the latter fetched at the peak of Modi wave, would be enough to crush the NDA. The actual voting suggests the battle is much different. The chemistry between RJD and JDU has gone down to the booth levels. However the booth workers are struggling to fetch the voters for the other party in case of UPA. This is truer for JDU than for RJD or Congress. RJD has been largely successful in transferring its vote base to Congress and the JDU. So wherever there is a good Muslim-Yadav population, the Congress along with a good number of Forward caste voters and JDU among with its own voter base can crush the opponents. The weak organizational structure of Congress would although undo that advantage and no surprise that Congress is in contest, in only a dozen of the seats it is fighting. On the other hand, JDU with the potent MYK and its own vote base which it earned due to 10 year of good rule is giving good fight. Unless there is sabotage by its ally, JDU must have a good strike rate, possibly more than 60% which is phenomenal for a party fighting double incumbency in the office.

The Surprise Package ­– It was said that the allies are the weak link for the BJP. However this does not hold true for LJP. The BJP and LJP have been in alliance for a while. The required chemistry among their cadres has reached a zenith. The absence of any major conflict between the 2 parties, in the last 1.5 years has also helped the cause. BJP cadres are working for LJP candidates as one of their own and vice versa. Also in some seats, LJP has managed to get muslim votes in double digits. Not a wonder it can spoil the party for quite a few. Infact, it would not be a surprise if in Phase 1, LJP scores a strike rate (seats won on seats contested) better than even JDU or the BJP in the 1st phase. LJP has done quite well in Samastipur, Jamui and Munger districts. If this holds true fr the remaining phases then, RJD for the 1st time, runs the risk of being relegated to the 4th position in the state, behind the BJP, JDU and the LJP

The Pseudo X Factor – Most people in Bihar either do not know Mohan Bhagwat or are not concerned much about the statements made by Mohan Bhagwat. However reservation is an emotive issue and no wonder RJD-JDU have left no stone unturned to make this the frontline issue of their attack. It would be in BJP’s interest to repeatedly disown the remarks of RSS chief.  The perceived X factor, that is the ‘Journalistic Jumlas’ are not a big factor in Bihar election. Similar statements were made in 2014 and in every other election. CP Thakur (who is more popular in Bihar than Mohan Bhagwat) commented against reservation, not just assessing it, or Giriraj Singh’s many comments highlighted by Media did not impact any election. Media jumlas have not impacted any election except for Delhi. And the reasons were 3 fold. First Media penetration is high, second Delhi has majority of voters who belong to the “I don’t give a shit about politics” category and hence easily influenced by Media and third, BJP unit of Bihar is nowhere like BJP unit of Delhi, which has lost its cause after a long haul, out of power. The masisve churn and volatility in Delhiw as captured even by IBTL polls, when in October 2014 IBTL gave 54 to BJP and just 11 seats to AAP and just 2 months later, AAP gained 19 seats upto 30 and BJP slipped to 35. In Bihar, BJP leaders took the fight to the opposition, the best example was in 203 when they gave up power and unanimously raised the demand to make Narendra Modi as PM. Bunkums like ‘Church attacks’, ‘Liberal siege by Hindutva’ etc won’t work in Bihar. Same goes for reservation if the BJP top leaders, including the PM, keep repeating that they do not oppose reservation in their rallies. People might get angry but their voting choice would not be influenced. It was evident in our last opinion poll when Yadavas were angry with Lalu for beef remarks, but not willing to change their voting choice.

The Neo X Factor – Who is the silent voter? The 130+ castes in Bihar which belong to the extremely backward category or the EBC is touted to be the kingmaker and rightfully so. However as mentioned, these are over 130 groups. The Nishad group, comprising more than 20 communities of boatmen and fishermen, alone form over 1/3rd of this group. With Ajay Nishad in the fold and the son of Mallah ‘Mukesh Sahni’ supporting NDA, could prove to be the X factor in these elections.  Mukesh represents the Mallah community which forms over 5% of Bihar’s population. His ambitions have driven him from one alliance to the other. For short term, this could prove to be the difference for NDA in a tightly contested election. After Narendra Modi, Mukesh Sahni is much in demand for rallies among the NDA partners. Sahni has already made an impact in Samastipur and Nawada for the NDA.

The Caveat – For a state with history of political violence, it would not be a surprise if the voters do not reveal their actual voting choices and might also be forced to vote for an alliance which they never wanted to. With Yadav ganglords and the Bahubalis in NDA fold as well, even if 5% of the voters conceal or mislead about their actual voting choices, it could shatter all the calculations. The 2nd issue with Bihar is, not just each of the 243 constituencies, even various booths, panchayats and villages in a particular seat have varied issues and people could vote differently on the predominant issues prevailing in their areas. In such a localized issue, it is extremely difficult to extrapolate voting behavior of a sample to the entire universe of population, even if the sample is a true representative of the population. Perhaps getting the Bihar polls accurate would be more about luck than about electoral analysis.

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