IBTL team talked to Social Activist & Hindu Samhati Chief Tapan Ghosh to know his version of the recent violence and..

India is going through one of its periodic bouts of exuberance
over prospects of better ties with Pakistan. Islamabad’s recent
willingness to liberalise bilateral trade between the two countries
has met with enthusiastic response from the Indian side. While good
relations with a neighbour is a highly desirable objective, what
should worry us is that powerful sections of the Indian
establishment, including the current Prime Minister and the
dominant English-language media, are more than willing to go
overboard to befriend Pakistan, throwing national interests to the
wind. This is what is happening now.
Pakistanis claim that this time, everybody (add, including Army) is
on board in the move to improve relations with India. This makes
eminent sense. Even the most hardnosed Pakistani policy makers
realise that their country is spectacularly isolated. With
Afghanistan on boil, relations with US on ice and fair weather
friends turning their backs, Pakistan has discovered the benefits
of dealing with the enemy that knows you well.
And then there is the economy. Pakistan GDP growth rate has
dwindled from 6.8 per cent in 2007 to 2.4 per cent in 2011. Its
industrial sector contracted by 0.1 per cent in 2010-11. Private
corporate sector is shrinking. Pakistani elite classes are shifting
not only their capital but even their families out of the country.
There are no buyers for Pakistan government bonds outside the
government. In its wisdom, Pakistan threw out IMF and went out of
its way to displease the only country that has the financial muscle
to help it out of trouble: US. The only bright spot is exports:
textiles, cotton, rice. Pakistanis have realised that it makes no
sense to keep away from one of the largest markets in the world:
India.
Pakistan made the first gesture last month to deepen trade ties
with India. Earlier, it had a positive list of 2,000 items which
alone were allowed to be imported from India. This was replaced
with a negative list of 1209 banned items. This straightaway
increased the number of exportable items from India more than
three-fold. On its part, India has now agreed to reduce its
sensitive list of 865 items that are not given preferential market
access under the South Asia free trade agreement by 30 per cent
within four months.
India exported goods worth $2.33 billion to Pakistan last year,
while imports from there were worth $330 million. Trade through
third countries, such as Dubai, is estimated at $10 billion per
year. So, if direct trading is allowed, bilateral trade can grow
several times. Pakistan feared earlier that if it opened its gates,
its markets will be swamped by Indian goods. Now it has taken a
more realistic stand. It has promised to grant India the Most
Favoured Nation (MFN) status under WTO by the year end. This should
be welcomed.
What is not welcome is the move to ease visa restrictions for
businessmen between the two countries. India and Pakistan are
reportedly working on a mechanism to issue multiple-entry and
reporting-free visas for businessmen. India must proceed with
extreme caution here, because businessmen are not the only people
in Pakistan keen to enter India. Terrorists, mullahs espousing
Wahabi Islam, havala operators and traffickers in fake notes and
drugs are even keener to enter India than genuine businessmen. With
the connivance of the Pakistani establishment, it would not be
difficult for them to pose as businessmen.
And what must be rejected out of hand is the idea of allowing
foreign direct investment (FDI) from Pakistan. The ‘in-principle’
decision taken by the government in this regard must be reversed
immediately.
It is amazing that at a time when most countries are wary of
letting in Pakistanis even as visitors, the Manmohan Singh
government is all set to roll out the red carpet for them in the
garb of economic cooperation.
India is considering removing Pakistan from the negative list of
countries for FDI, so as to allow Pakistani companies to make
investments in India. Countries in the negative list are debarred
from investing in India. At present, Pakistan is the only entry in
the negative list under the Foreign Exchange Management Act. The
government had deleted Sri Lanka in 2006 and Bangladesh in 2007
from the list.
Nowhere in the world is Pakistan regarded as a worthwhile investor.
A country surviving on American doles is not expected to generate
investible surplus for other countries. Pakistan’s total overseas
investment in the last five years works out to a paltry $418
million dollars, which will hardly merit mention in a footnote in
any official document.
The move is intended to be a political signal, and the reason
behind it is as sloppy as can be. “When we can allow investment
from China, there is no reason to block Pakistan,” a senior
official is reported to have said. Forget the fact that China is an
economic giant wooed by all, whereas Pakistan is a tinderbox whose
chief exports are Wahabi Islam, terrorism and drugs. Notice that
this is the same logic used by Congress leaders in the
pre-independence period while slowly yielding ground to Jinnah’s
Muslim League: now that we have conceded so much, why not a little
more?
The sinister implications of this needless appeasement hardly need
to be spelt out. ISI agents posing as businessmen will be able to
buy large properties, set up expansive factories and offices, and
employ Pakistani spies and local fifth columnists as legitimate
employees with the right to move all across the country. They will
be able to receive large sums as lawful investment and launder
havala money as business profits.
“But Pakistani businesses here will be subject to our laws on
excise, sales tax, income tax, isn’t it?” Are you kidding? The
smallest Indian factory owner, the lowliest trader, the humblest
businessman, knows how to manage these watchdogs. Will Pakistanis,
flush with currency – silver as well as leather – and political
patronage, have any difficulty in dealing with them?
In another voluntary abandonment of national interests, India last
year withdrew its opposition to the controversial trade-aid package
proposed by the European Union (EU) for Pakistan, at the General
Council of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Under the package, around 75 tariff lines or products from Pakistan
would get concessional access to European markets for three years,
of which 67 would have zero tariff. On the remaining eight, tariff
rate quotas (TRQ, limited imports at reduced duty) would apply.
This concession was offered by the 27-nation EU to help Pakistan in
the wake of the devastating floods last year. It would boost
Pakistan’s exports by 88 million pounds per year.
Note that the proposal was shot down, not once, but thrice. The
move was opposed by India, Brazil, Bangladesh, Peru and Vietnam, as
it would impact their exports to the EU. Besides commercial logic,
such a waiver would set a bad precedent and go against the WTO
spirit of non-discrimination. In fact, WTO has never taken up such
a waiver before. This is not a relief package. If EU wants to help
Pakistan, let it give cash. But EU wants to favour Pakistan at the
expense of other, poor countries. There is no way one can approve
this.
Yet India, which should lead opposition to the idea, caved in after
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh personally intervened to ease things
for Pakistan.
Apparently, the FDI proposal was discussed between Dr. Manmohan
Singh and Pakistan Prime Minister Gilani when the latter came here
to watch the cricket World Cup final in March. In other words, when
the country was euphorically celebrating its victory in the cricket
World Cup, its Prime Minister was quietly preparing to sell it down
the river.
Many industrialists and investors (both Indian and foreign) have
rightly accused the Manmohan Singh government of policy paralysis,
poor governance and endless dithering on important issues. But when
it comes to the Prime Minister’s own agenda (appeasement of
Pakistan and protection of US interests), the same government is
found to be full of clarity, vigour and resoluteness.
Dr. Manmohan Singh did not resign as the Deputy Chairman of
Planning Commission when Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi described
Indian planners as a bunch of jokers. But he was all prepared to
resign as Prime Minister on the issue of nuclear deal with US. That
tells us something about both, Dr. Singh and the deal.
A fool messes up everything he handles. A confused man cannot take
decisions on any issue. But if you act foolishly or in a confused
manner on most matters and are a picture of wile and resoluteness
on a few, you are not a fool. You are a clever man with your own
agenda. India is blessed with a Prime Minister who is clever – too
clever, perhaps, for its own good.
Author : Virendra Parekh, an Author is Executive Editor, Corporate
India, and lives in Mumbai (Vijayvaani)
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